Nearly 10 years ago, Donald Trump rode down a gaudy, golden escalator from his high perch atop Trump Tower down to the masses to announce his run for president. That moment would dramatically change the trajectory of the Republican Party in America — for the worse, and maybe irreparably.
That was the fear amongst many conservatives, including myself, who saw in Trump a dangerous, ignorant, narcissistic, demagogue and grifter who was untethered from the thing that mattered most to us — conservatism.
We’d later learn he was untethered from other things, too — a moral compass, ethical standards, the United States Constitution, American law, and even reality at times.
We’d watch Trump convince previously principled conservatives to abandon their principles. We’d watch Republicans jettison policy for culture wars, democracy for division, political competence for conspiracy theories.
We’d watch Trump convince an angry mob to storm the U.S. Capitol in a brazen and violent attempt to overturn democracy. We’d watch him tempt the legal system to hold him accountable for dozens of alleged felonies, including fraud and obstruction.
And we’d watch his once mighty empire crumble as he faces hundreds of millions in legal fines and fees.
Now, years later, despite everything we’ve watched, Trump is poised to be the Republican nominee once again after nearly sweeping the primaries on Super Tuesday.
The one ray of hope inside the Republican Party, a party that Trump has wholly remade in his crooked image, was Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.
After knocking out bigger spenders and buzzier candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, she became the last woman standing between Trump and the nomination. She impressively won 40% of the vote in numerous Republican primary and caucus states, and won outright Vermont and Washington, D.C., making her the first Republican woman ever to win a primary and the only Republican to beat him anywhere since 2016.
She wasn’t a perfect candidate, but she spoke to a growing number of Republicans, moderates, and independents who desperately wanted a Trump alternative.
She represented a return to normalcy, conservative principles, and problem-solving, and promised a new generation of leadership at a time where both frontrunners are noticeably old and slipping.
But just as Trump bragged about ridding the GOP of good conservatives like Sen. Mitt Romney, and reducing it to 100% MAGA, she’d ultimately suffer the fate of every other Republican since 2016 who has lost to Trump.
The Republican Party is, as Trump says, 100% MAGA now. There’s no going back. And with Haley’s departure, that becomes even clearer.
But Trump is wrong in one sense. The GOP may be condensed and purified of apostates. But Republican voters are not united around Trump.
No one losing 40% of the Republican vote in places like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina could claim voters are united.
In North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, less than 40% of Republican voters consider themselves MAGA. And a huge majority of Haley voters in North Carolina, South Carolina, and California say they won’t support Trump in the general, according to exit polling.
That makes Trump a considerably weak candidate in the general election — and Haley’s campaign has a lot to do with that.
Lucky for him, President Biden is just as weak, facing low approval numbers and increasing concerns over his age.
Unluckily for us, one thing is clear after Super Tuesday: we’ll end up with someone deeply unpopular no matter who wins.
As for Nikki Haley, her political future is unclear. Certainly, something could happen to Trump — you can fill in the blank. Her candidacy could be resurrected at some point.
But the Republican Party isn’t with Haley, it’s with Trump.
And there are some early indications she might end up returning to him after all of this.
As she said when withdrawing: “It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it, who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”
And I asked her campaign on Wednesday morning if there was a world in which she could eventually endorse him, and, alas, they implied that there was.
It’s disappointing, but predictable and probably politically smart if she wants a future in today’s GOP — there’s simply no surviving outside of Trump’s orbit.
So now we must accept that Trump will be the nominee and is still the standard bearer for the Republican Party, and everything that brings with it.
But for a brief, fleeting moment, there was the promise of Nikki Haley.
