With less than two weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses, the 2024 presidential election just shot into high gear.
Former President Donald Trump still overwhelmingly leads the Republican pack, despite the fact that he’s facing more than 90 criminal charges and four different indictments and may, at some point, have to run from prison.
Trump voters, blinded by their fealty to him and convinced that he is the unwitting target of a grand conspiracy to take him down, are unbothered by this historic, unprecedented, and otherwise humiliating state of affairs — just as they are unbothered by his attempt at overturning a democratic election and inciting a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, his recent guilty ruling in the sexual abuse of E. Jean Carroll, his latest fraud ruling, and his near-constant praise of evil dictators who hate our country and all that we stand for…to name just a few indiscretions.
Yes, all of this is just fine with Trump voters. In fact, what would normally be categorized as a very bad year for anyone, but in particular someone running for president, was actually a banner year for Trump. He started off 2023 polling at 45.2% among Republican voters, and ended the year at 61.3%. Lucky guy.
So, despite how discomfiting that is, and how queasy it makes many of us who are not in the idolatrous cult of MAGA, it seems very likely that Trump will be the Republican nominee.
But, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis still believe they have a fighting chance, and Iowa will be the first indicator of whether that’s true or wishful thinking.
Haley in particular might be in a good position to win over independents and moderates — and with the MAGA base’s rabidity and fierce loyalty to Trump, that might be her best bet at winning the nomination.
She seems to know this ecumenically. She’s already spent much of the primary positioning herself as the saner choice, often pointing out, albeit gently, that Trump is followed by chaos. Again, this is not a thing that bothers his voters — but it does bother independents and moderates.
On abortion, she’s opted for language and policy that sounds more compassionate and reasonable than many in the Republican Party. And that may resonate in Iowa, for example, where 61% of adults say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 70% of women say the same.
And in the Hawkeye State, where a plurality of Republicans actually said that Trump’s recent attacks on immigrants — that they were “poisoning the blood” of our country — makes them more likely to vote for him, her rebuke of those remarks are far more likely to sit well with independents and moderates.
In Iowa, that’s not an insignificant voting block, where there are more registered independent voters than registered Republican voters.
And perhaps most importantly, independents are allowed to change their affiliation on caucus day to vote for Republicans if they so choose.
So, this would all seem to be very good news for Haley, right?
Yes. Except, for some reason, her Iowa ground operation isn’t going after independents.
In a bizarre twist, Haley’s team is only targeting registered Republicans, believing that’s primarily who turns out to vote in caucuses. “There really haven’t even in recent history any historical indications of campaigns going out and really targeting independents, and they also have a pretty low rate of actually showing up to participate,” says Drew Klein, senior adviser for Americans for Prosperity, the PAC that is essentially running her GOTV — get out the vote — effort in Iowa.
While that may be true, this might also be the best shot she has at narrowing that gap between her and Trump. And, considering how undyingly loyal they are to him, chasing MAGA voters seems utterly futile.
There’s some more good news for Haley. CNN announced she, DeSantis and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for its Jan. 10 debate in Des Moines, effectively setting up a DeSantis vs. Haley match since Trump won’t show up.
For her, it’s another chance to position herself as the sane Trump alternative, especially against DeSantis, who’s been running to the right of Trump on many issues.
Or, Haley could use the final Iowa debate to try, in vain, to win over MAGA voters — voters who are so devoted to Trump they say they would vote for him to run the country from prison.
Ignoring independents and moderates in Iowa seems like a very bad strategy. They’re gettable votes, while Trump voters are not.
We’ll see if the odd move helps or hurts Haley in just under two weeks. Here we go.
