Anyone watching the Iowa caucuses results pour in Monday night could see very quickly that former President Donald Trump was going to walk away with a decisive victory. He won 98 of 99 counties, and was denied the 99th by only one vote. More than one cable news network called the race before all the votes had even been cast.
We have some insight into how Trump managed to pull that off. It may be simply because a majority of Republican voters in that state are convinced that President Biden’s win over Trump in 2020 was illegitimate, according to results of CNN’s entrance poll.
After all, it can’t be purely about “the issues,” as we like to say. On immigration, Trump failed to deliver on the wall or solve our broken system while president. On abortion, Trump touts the overturning of Roe v. Wade as his signature accomplishment, but is also signaling he’s not willing to go as far as pro-lifers want. As for the economy, Trump exploded the debt and the deficit, something Republicans are supposed to find problematic. His trade war with China resulted in a huge blow to Iowa farmers, which Trump had to offset by sending them government checks (something Republicans are also supposed to loathe).
The Iowa caucuses weren’t about electability either, apparently. Roughly 40% of caucus-goers prioritized a candidate who “shared their values,” while only 14% said they cared that he or she could beat Biden.
They couldn’t possibly have been about what’s best for the Republican Party. Trump lost the White House, the House and the Senate for the GOP in four short years. Not so much with all the winning.
And they clearly weren’t about morality or character, either. A whopping 72% of Trump voters in Iowa said he was fit for the presidency, even if convicted of a crime.
So, congratulations, Iowa, you’ve fallen for it! You’ve nominated a guy who didn’t deliver on most of his promises the first time, who was handily defeated by Biden, who lost the whole smash for Republicans, and who might just be in prison when the election actually takes place. But at least you’ll be able to sleep at night believing — falsely — that Biden isn’t the actual president. Terrific.
But as commanding as Trump’s lead is — and no one should doubt that millions of other MAGA voters around the country are equally as committed and hoodwinked — it’s worth pointing out that almost half of Republican voters turned out in frigid temperatures to vote for someone other than Trump.
Now, that fact remains utterly meaningless if it continues to be split between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who finished neck and neck in Iowa, DeSantis in second and Haley in third.
But the voters who want a Trump alternative exist, and DeSantis and Haley are hoping to live another day — or primary — to win them over.
So with Iowa in the rearview mirror, it’s now on to New Hampshire, another small state, unrepresentative of the country’s electorate, with outsized early importance.
There, Trump is also ahead in the polls, but Haley isn’t far behind. DeSantis, on the other hand, is polling in the single digits. More than a month later, it’s on to South Carolina, where Haley and DeSantis are polling second and third, respectively, behind Trump.
So in order to pierce Trump’s seeming inevitability, the race will come down to a battle between two competing factors:
How long can Ron DeSantis go versus how far can Nikki Haley go?
DeSantis’s problems are immediate. New Hampshire and South Carolina aren’t his voters. And he’s running out of money. Can he last on the dwindling fundraising he’s got long enough to make it to more favorable states?
Haley’s problems are more distant. She’s well positioned for good results in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and just announced a huge fundraising haul for Q4 2023. But the map beyond those two states gets harder for Haley, where there are fewer moderates and independents to woo.
It’s hard to say which is the more enviable position to be in — having money problems or map problems — but neither is ideal. DeSantis has to hope for an influx of cash from some very bullish and trusting donors and Haley has to hope DeSantis drops out early enough to give her a chance to be competitive in later states.
How long versus how far.
Of course, it might all be pointless in the end. Nearly 70% of all Republican voters still believe the 2020 election was stolen. If that’s all that’s motivating the majority of the party — as it appeared to be Monday night — it’s safe to say Trump will be their nominee.
Thanks, Iowa.
