In cable news, we practice the persuasive arts — and I’ll be the first to admit that we commentators have a penchant for hyperbole and a tendency to overstate. We especially like to do that with local and midterm elections like New York’s congressional special election.
“What does it mean?” is simply too tempting a question to answer honestly, which is sometimes, “It doesn’t mean anything” or “It doesn’t mean that much.”
Former Rep. Tom Suozzi defeated Mazi Pilip to win back the seat once occupied by the disgraced, truth-averse Republican and self-proclaimed diva George Santos, who is fetching $350 a video on Cameo while he awaits trial for the 23 fraud-related charges he is facing.
So what does Suozzi’s decisive 8-point win mean? Well, not nothing, but not everything either.
And with all due respect to my friend and CNN colleague, former Rep. Max Rose, whom I joined on television Wednesday morning, the victory was not “monumental” for the Democratic Party and President Biden. Not even close.
But here’s what we can take away:
First, special elections aren’t usually a bellwether for national elections, and this is no exception. It’s a district that, despite being flipped by Santos in 2022, Biden won by 9 points in 2020, and where Democrats lead Republicans 39% to 28%. Another third of registered voters are independents.
Suozzi also held the seat for three consecutive terms making him a de facto incumbent.
Pilip, on the other hand, was a relative unknown. She had just under two months to introduce herself to voters and in that time offered up some confusing and mixed messages on abortion, and immigration, and even whether she was supporting former President Donald Trump.
Democrats also outspent her $14 million to $8 million. So, to call her the underdog is a fair statement.
But Suozzi’s win can tell us something about how Democrats can win despite the fact that Biden is unpopular.
First, he ran as a moderate, and reminded voters of his centrism.
“I think my whole campaign is a warning sign for Democrats,” he told ABC News. “I’ve always been somebody who has been battling with my own party. I’ve always been a centrist…and they asked me to run. Why? Because they know my message is what we need to be talking about.”
He also, importantly, didn’t run with Biden, whom he acknowledged was “very unpopular” in his district. When asked if he wanted the president to campaign for him, he said, “I don’t think it would be helpful, just as I don’t think Donald Trump would be helpful to my opponent.”
He also gave some very frank — and even heretical — assessments of Biden. “The bottom line is, he’s old,” he said on Monday. He said he’d “likely” support him “if he ends up being the Democratic candidate,” but also admitted there’s “all kinds of debate as to whether he’s going to stick it out or not.”
On the issues, he also strayed from Democratic talking points, which have painted a far rosier picture of the border crisis, the economy and crime than many voters are feeling.
“The Democratic brand is in trouble here, and we have to do a lot to overcome that,” he told CNN earlier this month.
Suozzi was staunchly supportive of Israel, despite heavy criticism of Biden’s support among the party’s progressive base.
He supported a bipartisan deal on immigration, which included increased border security, and admitted, “people in my district are upset with the Democrats because they haven’t been tough enough on things like the border.”
“They’re worried about the immigration crisis, people streaming across the border. What the hell’s going on? Seems so chaotic,” he said, echoing the frustrations of many Americans who blame both parties for inaction.
He also talked tough on crime, a problem Democrats often claim is overblown by Republicans. “Crime and immigration and taxes is not a Republican message,” he said. “It’s an American message, and Democrats as well as Republicans need to be addressing these issues.”
In short, Suozzi knew his district, but he also seemed to have a pretty good read on where the country is, too — and it’s not on the extremes, where both parties prefer to live these days. It’s in the moderate, centrist middle, where common sense prevails in the face of partisan posturing.
The lesson isn’t that Democratic policies are winning — in fact, it may be the opposite, and acknowledging as much goes a long way.
So, if Democrats are interested in regaining the House, holding the Senate and winning the White House again, all despite having an unpopular president leading the party, take note — this is how you do it.
