The Mets attempted to make us forget that they neglected to make Zack Wheeler an offer by hijacking the news cycle with a colossal ownership announcement Wednesday. But there’s a hole in the rotation where Wheeler used to be, and the Mets’ solution to that dilemma is not yet clear.
Wheeler signed with the Phillies on a five-year, $118 million deal Wednesday afternoon and one hour later, the Mets released a statement saying hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen will “increase his investment” in the team in five years time. While Mets fans who soured on the Wilpon regime celebrated, there are implications of Wheeler’s departure that need to be addressed.
What are the Mets losing?
Wheeler had 15 starts of at least seven innings last season, tied for second in the National League with the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu and tied for fourth in the majors. He’s thrown seven innings or more in 28 of 50 starts since June 6, 2018. Before that stretch, Wheeler had gone at least seven innings just eight times in his first 76 career starts.
In other words, Wheeler was an essential innings-eater for the majority of the past two seasons. He frequently saved the Mets from having to go to the bullpen too early. He served up just eight home runs in his last 16 starts that spanned 100.2 innings. His 0.72 homers per nine innings starting June 22 was the third-best mark in baseball. He did not allow a homer in 42 consecutive innings from Aug. 24 – Sept. 26.
It’s no wonder the Phillies, Astros, White Sox and others were willing to spend nine figures on the 29-year-old right-hander. But he is injury prone, and that leads to some speculation about just how effective Wheeler will be over the course of his five-year deal. He missed the entirety of the 2015-16 seasons following Tommy John Surgery and tossed just 86.1 innings — with a 5.21 ERA over 17 starts — in 2017.
Is this the last the Mets have seen of Wheeler?
No.
Even though Wheeler received a better offer from the White Sox, worth $120 million over five years, according to reports, one of the reasons he chose the Phillies is because his wife is from New Jersey. Wheeler can stay close to family and cause the Mets misery with a new-look Phillies squad led by manager Joe Girardi.
The Mets face the Phillies in their second series of the season, on March 30 at Citi Field. It’s possible Wheeler could pitch any of the three games in that series and quickly remind the Amazin’s exactly what they passed up on.
Where does this leave the Mets’ starting rotation?
The Mets have indicated they’re comfortable looking internally for a pitcher that can at least come close to replicating Wheeler’s production. Two immediate options are right-handed relievers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Lugo would be the better fit, as he was a starting pitcher in the minor leagues and has publicly voiced his desire to one day become a full-time starter in the big leagues.
It would certainly be interesting to see how the 30-year-old Lugo transitions to the rotation. Last season, he appeared in a career-high 61 games and recorded a career-high 104 strikeouts. Lugo had another career-high in his strikeout rate (33.1%) and a career-low walk rate (5.1%). When Edwin Diaz struggled in his closer role throughout the majority of the season, Lugo stepped up and converted six of his seven save opportunities.
After allowing a season-high five runs on August 14 at Atlanta, Lugo allowed just two earned runs in his final 15 appearances of the season. He posted a miniscule 0.82 ERA with two walks and 29 strikeouts over that span. His ability to adapt to any role the Mets put him in bodes well for the possibility of shifting to the rotation next year.
Will the Mets make a move?
The Mets’ silence before the Winter Meetings get started on Monday is telling. The Phillies made the splashiest move of the offseason so far with the acquisition of the third-best starting pitcher on the market. The Braves inked Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18 million deal. The rest of the NL East teams are beefing up their rosters while the Mets seem content with making the addition of new manager Carlos Beltran their most sensational offseason move.
There’s still time for Brodie Van Wagenen to address the team’s needs (like bullpen depth and a center field), but starting pitching looks to have taken a backseat. It’s possible the Mets start the 2020 season with a rotation that includes Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman while adding Lugo or altering that fifth starter spot as they see fit. That plan largely relies on the assumption that deGrom and company will stay healthy next year. There’s no way to predict whether or not that will be the case, but the Mets better look for pitching depth either way.
