When all the votes were counted, the “uncommitted” protest against the war in Gaza won about 13% of the votes cast in Tuesday’s Michigan Democratic primary.
And depending on who you ask, that could either amount to a potent warning sign from Democratic voters that President Biden should adjust his strongly pro-Israel stance or an underwhelming sign of a modest intraparty split unlikely to significantly impact his reelection campaign.
“It does speak to some fissures within the Democratic coalition,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with Inside Elections. “The frustration extends beyond just the Arab-American portion of the population — plenty of other voters went for uncommitted as well.”
“You could just take it all with a lot of grains of salt and say that it probably does not mean all that much either way,” countered Kyle Kondik, an analyst with the non-partisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Backers of the “uncommitted” movement say they outperformed their own projections of about 10% and scored a remarkable 101,000 raw votes against a sitting president who is very popular within his own party and is cruising to the nomination with only token opposition.
They note that Biden lost to “uncommitted” in Dearborn, a city that boasts one of the biggest share of Arab Americans in the nation, and faced significant protest votes in areas with many progressive and young voters, all of whom disproportionately oppose the war in Gaza.
The “uncommitted” forces vowed to continue their protests in future Democratic primary states, and some even say they will threaten to stay at home in looming Biden’s general election fight against former President Trump.
The protesters warn that could tip the balance in battleground states like Michigan, where Arab Americans make up an estimated 2 to 3% of the electorate.
Critics counter that an early surge of uncommitted voters faded as the night faded and more votes rolled in from Detroit and other big cities where mainstream Democrats dominate.
They say the real story of the night was heavier-than-expected Democratic turnout across the board, which Biden’s team says portends well for the president in a general election.
They note that the 13% is not much more than the 11% who voted “uncommitted” in Michigan’s 2012 Democratic primary to signal dissatisfaction with then-President Barack Obama.
While “uncommitted” performed strongly in heavily Arab areas, it failed to put up big numbers in college towns where supporters had predicted Biden-skeptical young people would turn out in droves to send a message of dissatisfaction with the president.
It’s unclear whether the protest vote can affect the rest of the Democratic primary states, including the Super Tuesday states that vote on March 5.
Michigan offered a best-case for the protesters with its large Arab-American population and support of elected officials like U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, whose sister led the grassroots Listen to Michigan movement that backed “uncommitted,” and state Rep. Abraham Aiyash, the trailblazing Democratic leader of the assembly.
The protesters organized rallies and spoke out in mosques and churches to win support for “uncommitted,” and build opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza.
None of the upcoming states in the primary race appear to have the same critical mass of opposition to Israel and most have primary systems that make it much more difficult to express dissent without voting for a rival candidate.
An effort to convince New Hampshire Democrats to write in the name “Ceasefire” on their ballots flopped badly.
New York’s presidential primary will be held on April 2. Pro-Palestinian organizers in the Empire State have not yet publicly announced if or how they want their supporters to register their anger with Biden’s stance on Israel at the ballot box.
